O, Canada


There has been some mention of the Canadian Liberals trying to taint the Canadian Conservatives with George Bush's influence should they win the upcoming elections via some negative TV adverts. Only time will tell should they win this week. Canada has been a progressive beacon in the Northern part of this hemisphere. One can hope that it will continue its progress and that Canadians will continue to be the North Americans without arrogance.

Our in-house Canuck, Brian had this to say recently about the election:

"Well, at the moment it looks like a Conservative minority, although the last week can be very volatile in Canadian politics. Assuming no slip-ups on their part and that their redneck image is sufficiently glossed over, they will probably form the next government.

It remains to be seen how successful they will be, however. Social conservatism is not popular and the other 3 parties will manage to keep that in line. I would expect, if it is a minority, it will last 18 months to 2 years and them we'll go through this all again.

They will attempt to redefine marriage as between a man and a woman. Depending on the strength of their majority it could pass because there are sufficient numbers of Liberals who agree with them. It's not a confidence item so the government doesn't fall should it fail. They claim they will recognise the marriages that have taken place and will bring in wide-ranging domestic partnership legislation which will essentially be marriage, except in name. The whole thing will work its way back to the Supreme Court anyway and they will probably have to invoke the notwithstanding clause of the Charter of Rights to make it stick."

Other voices here: A good analysis as Brian points out.


Brain adds "...Some of the polls point towards a Conservative majority. But as noted. this last week is always volatile and we won't know until tomorrow night when results start coming in from Ontario which is where they have to make real breakthrough."

Comments

Brian said…
The New York Times also has a good analysis

"Various national polls in the final days of the campaign have shown the Conservatives about 10 points ahead of the Liberals, but the Conservatives may still fail to win a majority in the House of Commons. A last-minute seepage of support from the social democratic New Democratic Party to the ruling party might deny the Conservatives a clear victory. Polls at the end of the week showed the Liberals making a modest comeback, but pollsters said it would take a miracle for them to win."

More here

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