Changing of the guard?

The results of the Canadian election are interesting.

Conservatives 124 seats - 36.25% (popular vote)
Liberals 103 seats - 30.22%
Bloc Quebecois 51 seats - 10.48%
NDP 29 seats - 17.49%
Independent 1 seat - .52%
Other 0 seats - 5.05%

Voter turn out was around 65%

A majority government requires 155 seats. At dissolution the Liberals held, I believe, 134 seats. So in effect, the Conservatives are in no better position to govern than the Liberals were. They may, in fact, be somewhat worse off, because the opposition is solidly (particularly the NDP and Bloq) to the left. The Conservatives did not pick up the seats they wanted in Atlantic Canada or Ontario, although they did manage about 9 more seats in Quebec.

In order to get legislation passed they will have to depend on consensus, something that Steven Harper indicates he is willing to do, but which many of his more right-wing MP's will bridle at. Social conservatism is unlikely to make many gains in this Parliament, not only because of the strong opposition, but also because several Conservative MP's who were elected in Ontario are more to the left, even supporting gay marriage.

Another interesting factor is the popular vote. The Conservatives did about what was expected, but the Liberals are 3 - 4% above projections.

Will the governement last?

This is where the changing of the guard comes in. Paul Martin has resigned as leader of the Liberals. It will take 12-18 months to replace him, so the Liberals will not be anxious to force an election for that reason, plus they need to rebuild.

On top of that, Canadians are tired of Federal politics. It is likely they would punish any party who moved too soon to start the whole process all over again.

The Parliament will fall apart either when the divisions between the parties become too fractious to make governing untenable or when the Conservatives think they can win again.

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